Last year, I decided, for the first time, to do some Oscar predicting on the old blog, instead of dragging unsuspecting friends into unwanted conversations. The response was so underwhelming that I decided to do the same this year. Here, a day before James Franco and Anne Hathaway (that’s inspired casting right there) kick things off, here’s my list of who will win, and who should.
Actor in a Leading Role
Who will win: Colin Firth is the front runner, and I think he does enough to see him through. Plus, never underestimate the hold of posh Brit accents on Academy voters. Plus, they owe him for A Single Man.
Who should win: Jesse Eisenberg is damaged and damaging, and he does it all with a face that never changes expression.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Who will win: Christian Bale throws the thespian kitchen sink at the audience in this role.
Who should win: Bale does too much. Hawkes and Ruffalo do too little. Renner is too much fun. Rush gets it just right.
Actress in a Leading Role
Who will win: Portman’s first truly great performance will not go unrewarded.
Who should win: Portman. Though I haven’t seen Williams in Blue Valentine. And Lawrence is scintillating in Winter’s Bone.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Who will win: Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit. Why she’s in the supporting category I don’t know. But she will win.
Who should win: Hailee Steinfeld.
Art Direction
Who will win: The King’s Speech.
Who should win: Inception.
Cinematography
Who will win: Roger Deakins.
Who should win: Did you notice the light behind Rooster Cogburn while he was deposing in court? God let it be Deakins.
Directing
Who will win: A good fight this year. I’d say The Social Network, and they’ll take Best Picture away for that.
Who should win: The Social Network.
Film Editing
Who will win: The Social Network.
Who should win: The Fighter.
Music (Original Score)
Who will win: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for The Social Network.
Who should win: I hope Rahman does, but Reznor and Ross wouldn’t be unjust.
Best Picture
Who will win: The King’s Speech seems to have the momentum. Damned if I know why.
Who should win: The Social Network, which will be remembered years from now, and long after the period politeness of The King’s Speech is a distant memory. Bad luck for True Grit, it ought to have been the runner-up.
Sound Mixing
Who will win: The King’s Speech. For it’s title.
Who should win: The Social Network, for that nightclub scene with Timberlake shouting over the din.
Visual Effects
Who will win: Inception.
Who should win: Inception.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Who will win: Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network), for proving screwball isn’t dead.
Who should win: Sorkin, though, for the second time, I must say bad luck to True Grit.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Who will win: David Seidler for The King’s Speech.
Who should win: I still cannot believe Leslie Manville didn’t get a Best Actress nod for Another Year, let alone nominations for the excellent supporting players. Give Mike Leigh the damn Original Screenplay Oscar already.
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